Long-term Price Hikes Expected: How Climate Change Is Driving Up Food Costs

Cocoa from Ghana, potatoes and onions from India, or olive oil from Spain – they all share one thing right now: massive price spikes.

A new study from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center reveals just how severely extreme weather is impacting global food supplies. In April 2024 alone, cocoa prices soared by 280%. In India, onions and potatoes became more than 80% more expensive, as did vegetables in California.

Weather extremes, not market fluctuations

But these developments are not short-term anomalies. Experts point to a structural problem: heatwaves, droughts, and harvest failures are becoming more frequent due to climate change – and are having a lasting impact on prices. Europe is not exempt either: olive oil became 50% more expensive in 2022/2023, and now prices for coffee and potatoes continue to climb.

When healthy eating becomes a financial burden

Low-income households are particularly affected. As fresh fruits, vegetables, and grains become unaffordable, many are forced to turn to cheaper processed foods. According to the Food Foundation, healthy food now costs twice as much as unhealthy options – a trend that further deepens social inequalities. But climate impacts are global, and in times of inflation, so is the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity.

"Climateflation" – a global issue

Experts call this development “climateflation” – climate change fueling not only extreme weather events but also inflation. According to a joint analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank, food inflation could rise by up to 1.8 percentage points annually by 2035. The Global South is hit hardest – but countries like Germany and the UK are also feeling the effects.

When food becomes a privilege

These price surges are not just a passing trend – they mark a long-term shift. Climate change is making healthy food increasingly expensive and out of reach for many.

What once was taken for granted – fresh vegetables, a piece of chocolate, a splash of olive oil – is becoming a luxury. If this trend continues, it's not just our food security that's at risk, but also social equity.

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